A false majority

A lot of people have been thinking pretty hard about how we got here for a few months now and there isn’t any clear one reason. There are myriad factors that I have seen plenty of people point to. Some blame strategic mistakes, others global economic conditions, and many point backlash to Obama. I think all of these have definitely contributed. However, one thing I haven’t seen discussed quite as thoroughly is the false belief in a Democratic majority.

Over the last decade I have seen extensive work attempting to show that Democrats have a mandate to govern as though they are a true majority of the county. After all, before 2024 the Democratic presidential candidate won the popular vote 7 of the last 8 times. Our senators have represented a majority share of the population despite having a minority of the seats several times. This holds true for votes compared to seats as well as can be seen below.

Unregistered voters were essentially treated as members of this hidden majority. Georgia was held up as a model case of a state registering voters and turning blue. This strategy continues to a focus even today.

Some polling of progressive issues has done well supporting this mindset. However, I think this is where the house of cards begins to crumble and start to appear a bit cherry picked. These facts are certainly true and Republicans are certainly employing a minoritarian strategy particularly in gerrymandering and the Senate. However, many other arguments about the Democratic majority don’t hold up to the smell test. For instance, Bernie Sanders, candidate of the 99%, signature policy was Medicare for All, which still doesn’t poll well.

It turns out that the progressive issues that get held up are more minor ones such as ending cash bail, a public option for internet access or creating generic versions of life-saving drugs. These are not unimportant but are not highlighted by voters as the most important issues to them. And moreover when we dive into the data the elections wins are not that solid. We only the popular vote by a few points in 2012, and essentially tied in 2016 and 2000. And we have lost the national house vote several times in this period.

Unfortunately, I have seen many in our movement not bring more people in because they might disagree on a few small points. If we were in a strong majority that would be okay. You can lose voters on the margin when you have a strong majority. However we don’t have that. There is no “Democratic Majority”. It is important to do our best to be as accurate as possible in our assessments of reality because if we aren’t we will make poor strategic choices and it will come back to bite us.