As of now the polling is quite rough for Biden. He is losing in most swing states, and has a poor approval rating. Election modelers vary in how much they think Trump leads with the most optimistic, 538, placing the race as a tossup. What’s worse is I think the 538 model is rosier than it seems as well. It places a heavy weight on the fundamentals (read: the economy), which is empirically doing quite well under Biden. Unfortunately, voters don’t seem to think so which implies that they won’t give him credit for it in November. Lastly, Biden’s massive spending advantage should have helped him correct this and yet he still faces major problems and Trump’s fundraising numbers are rapidly improving.
I don’t think this is the full story though. There are many reasons to doubt Trump’s presidential viability. Firstly, he is a historically weak candidate. Presidents are supposed to win reelection. Its a big deal when they don’t. Similarly, candidates too tied to Trump have done terribly. Trump’s statewide candidate endorsements performed particularly poorly in swing states in 2022 which helped Biden out considerably.
Secondly, he’s a moron and his strategy reflects that. While he does occasionally do a decent job appearing to moderate on some issues, overall his choices are poor. Over and over, he proves to be his own worst enemy, and the people around him are arguably getting worse not better. I find his choice of staff for his campaign efforts in Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona to be particularly damning. Trump decided that an organization with only a string of failures in Arizona to its name should run its on the ground organizing program in those three key states.
Lastly, I think there are a few reasons to think Biden has room to improve. His bar regarding mental acuity is one the floor right now for most voters, so when he performs well in the debate next week, he will change perceptions. There are a lot of other ways he might stir up the zeitgeist too. Most voters are not aware of what has happened in DC over the last few years. His record on climate change in particular is historic. When voters check in they will hopefully become more aware of all the cool impacts Biden has had on their communities. Finally, I have seen first hand how the Democratic party institutions are some of the technologically sound they’ve ever been. Unlike Trump, the DNC is taking major strides to towards a truly modern campaign.
Overall, I think people are right to be worried about Trump. This election is the most important of my lifetime and its terrifying to feel like you have no agency over what could be the end of Democracy in our country. However, doomerism is not the answer. This election is not a done deal but if Democrats play our cards right I believe in our electoral chances.
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